LaVine illustrating how high is the potential
of the two young players in this picture
I don't remember a rookie class being talked about as much as the 2014 class was (maybe because I don't remember the hype leading to the 2003 Draft, but still). Three young players (Wiggins, Parker and Julius Randle) were raised to "future franchise players" status before playing a single minute of College basketball; the buzz surrounding a mysterious Australian uber-prospect (Dante Exum) grew louder as the Draft got closer; and suddenly we had a raw Cameroonian center with ridiculous upside and suspicious feet improving at an impossible rate (and doing Dream Shakes) before becoming the most polarizing prospect in the Draft. Teams spent most of the year trying to outtank each other for Wiggins (Riggin' for Wiggins!) or Embiid (still bitter that "Low Seed for Embiid" never caught on). College specialists spent most of the pre-season hyping up the incoming rookie class, then most of the college season trying to find flaws and diminish it's top players (specially Wiggins, who took heat for being "too nice" and "not assertive enough"), then to hyping some of them again after the season was over and the Draft order was set. If you followed basketball - and not only college hoops, but NBA basketball - you certainly heard a lot about the players that would be available in the 2014 NBA Draft, and how they would impact the NBA landscape in the near future.
However, a few months later, the immediate impact of this rookie class was not exactly what was expected. Multiple players missed significant time with injuries, and others struggled to live up to the hype or find significant playing time. Of the four best rookies of 2014/15, one of them was a redshirt from 2013 (Nerlens Noel) and the other was an euro prospect drafted in 2011 (Nikola Mirotic).This led many observers and fans to call this rookie class "underwhelming" or "disappointing". But really, what was the problem here: the excessive hype over 18-year old kids? Bad luck over a small sample (a single season)? Or maybe a draft class that wasn't that good to begin with?
We don't know, and we won't know until we have more information on those players. Over the last couple decades, the NBA has seen a bigger influx of younger players than ever before, and rookies today are (in average) younger, less developed than the rookies of, say, 15 years ago. Don't you believe me? Well, then how about this...
And that's before remembering that the NBA forbid high school players from entering the NBA Draft since 2006. Look at the "Freshmen" column again. Expanding this point, and now including High School players...
And that's not including Dante Exum (#5) and Bruno Caboclo (#20), who were even younger than a regular NCAA freshmen - two players that would push 2014's totals to 7/11. And without considering the lower number of seniors and juniors selected in the higher part of the Draft (in the Top10, only Elfrid Payton was a junior or above, and even he was younger than most juniors).
So the thing is, blaming today's rookies for not making that much of an instant impact is essentially unfair. The majority of the top rookies nowadays are 19-year olds, who still are not mature enough (physically and mentally) to compete for 82 games with NBA-caliber athletes at a high level. They simply don't enter the NBA at an age and point in their development where they are ready to come and dominate from the start. It's unfair to judge them as players, or their futures in the league, based on a small data as a single season, specially if we are talking about such a young age and early stage in their developments (an example: remember when everyone was disappointed with Anthony Davis rookie season? That turned out ok). So while the impact of this much-hyped rookie class in 2014/15 wasn't nearly what was expected, this doesn't mean it was a bad rookie class, or even that it wasn't as good as advertised.
So let's take a deeper look at the rookies of this class, how their 2014/15 played out, what they showed us (good and bad), and what is expected of their futures. We'll talk about all 14 lottery rookies, and any other ones I feel like. Starting, of course, with our #1 pick...
Andrew Wiggins
The media attention surrounding Wiggins was one of the funniest (in a bad way) subplots of the 2014 Draft. The uber-athletic Wiggins was already called "the next McGrady/Durant/LeBron" before playing a single minute of College ball, and raised to "savior" status before turning 18. This led to a lot of scrutiny during his time at Kansas, as people criticized him for being too passive, too raw, and so on. Still, despite all criticism, Wiggins entered the NBA as a top prospect, surrounded by a lot of expectations.
And, for the most part, he lived up to them. Sure, he's still raw - his jump shot is still a work in progress (31% from deep, 32% from mid range), and he's still learning how to read and react to NBA defenses. Wiggins doesn't yet see passing lanes to take full advantage of his drives, and his ball handling is still shaky, limiting his options when trying to create his shot. However, that's expected from a 19-year old facing big league competition for the first time, specially one that entered the league raw as Wiggins did.
But the rookie also showed that, despite all the talk about him not being assertive enough, he was able to step up and be "the guy" for a (admittedly very bad) team. Despite playing for a bad team, with poor spacing and (at least for most of the year) without a good point guard who could help him get better looks (more on that in a second), Wiggins became only the fifth 19-year old in NBA history to average at least 16 points per game (Melo, Durant, LeBron and Kyrie being the others). After the two high-usage veterans on the team (Pekovic and Kevin Martin) went down with injuries, Wiggins seized the opportunity to become the centrepiece of the team's offense, averaging 20 points with 45.5% shooting over his last 56 games. He wasn't shy about attacking guys off the dribble, and even started posting up smaller dudes (with a surprisingly good post game) after Flip Saunders shifted him to Shooting Guard (averaging 0.85 PPP in the post, solid number for a rookie wing). He's still much more effective finishing in transition (62.5th percentile of NBA players) or off cuts (77th percentile), where his limited ball handling is not an issue and he can use his phenomenal athleticism to it's full potential (for comparison's sake, Wiggins is averaging 0.68 points per possession when finishing off the pick and roll, a pretty bad number), but he was still better than expected dribbling to the middle of the floor and finishing around the rim, and his explosiveness, first step and all-around athleticism give him enormous potential on the offensive side of the ball - specially if Minnesota can surround him with better spacing and, well, a healthy Ricky Rubio (the Wolves, a team with a -9.8 Net Rating this season, was actually a -2.2 team Wiggins and Rubio sharing the floor, a much better mark).
His defense was also as good as advertised, and despite some rookie mistakes (some late rotations, backdoor cuts, eventual lack of concentration), he had some very dominant stretches that show how much he can contribute on that side of the ball with his long arms, quickness and athletic ability. I mean, I know it's just one possession, but take a look at this clip. That defense is almost obscene. I won't even describe it so this column doesn't get a PG rating.
All in all, it was a very good, very consistent rookie season that had Wiggins - deservedly - named the 2015 NBA Rookie of the Year. He still has a lot of room to improve - specially improving his shot selection, as too many of his possessions still ended in bad mid-range jumpers (usually step backs); his outside shooting (his form is good, though); and his ball handling, to enable him to create better looks - but he showed enough to get us genuinely excited, and to establish himself as a true franchise centrepiece for years to come and one of the best young players in the game. The sky is the limit for this kid.
Jabari Parker
Even without Wiggins' sky-high potential and athleticism, Parker also had high expectations for his rookie season because his game was already more developed and NBA-ready. Unfortunately, a knee injury ended Parker's season after only 25 games, taking him out for good before that part of the season where most rookies start having their leaps. At the time of his injury (December 15th), Parker was second among rookies in scoring (12.3, half a point behind Wiggins) while shooting 49% and third in rebounds (5.5, with Nerlens Noel leading with 6.5). So while it was a solid start to the season, it's very difficult to analyze Parker's play when he played so little, and before he could really adapt to a new level of basketball.
However, one area where Parker had a good show (again, in a small sample) was one that was considered his biggest strength: offensive versatility. Parker didn't have a high usage (normal for the first games of a rookie's season), but he was pretty efficient scoring in a variety of ways. He played well off the ball, was very smart cutting to the basket, posted up when against a smaller defender, and could even run some weak side pick and rolls with good results. And he was devastating in transition, averaging 1.31 points per possession and running some gorgeous fast breaks alongside Giannis. Even in a small sample, that's a pretty good offensive repertoire, and a guy who can score in so many ways has some solid potential on that side of the ball. And even if his jump shot was awful in those 25 games (it was a strength in college, so nothing to worry about yet), he showed fantastic touch near the basket, converting 70% of his chances near the rim.
It's obviously all a small sample, and the numbers can't be fully trusted. We'll need to see a lot more of him before we can do some serious, sustainable analysis. But Parker's strength coming out of Duke was his offense, and he showed enough promising flashes on that side of the ball to create enough expectations of what he could do with enough seasoning - and a full, healthy season playing for one of the best young teams in basketball.
Joel Embiid
Embiid was arguably the fastest riser in terms of draft stock I've ever seen. He was considered an intriguing prospect before the season began, a raw talent with enormous potential... and all it took were a couple months before some people started calling him "The Next Hakeem". Hyperboles aside, his stock rose so fast because Embiid's game evolved at a record pace. He was a very athletic shot blocker at first, but soon started hitting jumpers, passing out of the high post, demolishing guys in the low post, and he even did a freaking Dream Shake against New Mexico! I know this is a cliche, but it's true in Embiid's case: he simply got better every single time he played. Every time I watched him - and I frequently went out of my way just to watch HIM play- he was doing something better, or added some new wrink to his game, to the point that - glup! - the Hakeem comp (in style of play, not necessarily talent) actually started to look good!
It wasn't long until he became the best player in a loaded Kansas squad (that included Wiggins), a national star... and then the injuries started to derail him, removing him from the latter part of the season (including the NCAA Tournament). A healthy Embiid would probably have been the #1 pick in the Draft, but many injury concerns regarding his back and feet dropped him to #3. And the Sixers picked him there knowing he would probably miss the entire season - which he did - so there's really not much to talk about him here. Of course, many rumours popped up during the season - that he was overweight, that he was shooting 3s, that he skipped medical sessions, that he was actually Godzilla - but none worth discussing here.
Still, Embiid's 2014/15 will probably be remember for one thing: his fantastic twitter account. He's our 2015 Social Media Rookie of the Year.
Aaron Gordon
Another rookie that had his season derailed by injuries, limiting him to only 47 games and 797 minutes in all. And maybe that's because he had a tough time staying healthy (sometimes playing through minor injuries) and missed a significant part of the season (so he had a tougher time adapting to the league), but the thing is, Aaron Gordon didn't have a big role in his first professional season. He played only 17 minutes per game, attempting less than five shots, and mostly was a secondary player on offense.
And the truth is, despite all his injury problems (which certainly contributed), the problem was that Gordon was an extremely raw rookie playing for a bad team filled with players that don't really fit together. Gordon is extremely athletic - the Blake Griffin comparisons came from something - and he can do some damage finishing alley oops or soaring for dunks (he did well finishing in transition, for example) but he struggles when he has to basically create his own shot. 57.3% of his shots came without any dribble, and his shot chart (by NBA.com/stats) helps show the issue:
The sample is small, but most of his offense (49% of his shots) came around the rim - a high number for a small forward - and, more important, he can't really hit anything away from it (near the rim he shot a league-average 61.8% despite all his athleticism). Still, you have to cut him some slack - he played for an awful offensive team, with poor spacing, ball dominant guards and nothing resembling an efficient offensive scheme. Refining that jumper is obviously a priority, and despite some decent ball handling (specially on the open court), Gordon will probably never be a big shot creator. He will keep doing most of his work off the ball - he is very dangerous cutting to the basket - but that could be difficult in an team that struggles so bad to create offense, and against opponents who can sag off of him. To make a really solid analysis on Gordon would demand more playing time and a full season, but we can say the new Magic coach will have his hands full trying to integrate Gordon to his offense.
Defensively, Gordon was very destructive in man defense, doing a very good job against bigger opponents on the post and closing ball handler's paths to the rim. That was expected of him, and he showed a lot of promise in that area. The problem was whenever he need to play away from the ball - he got lost in middle ground when teams put him on pick and rolls, and he often lost his man when navigating through screens. That's the kind of stuff most rookies struggles with, and nothing unexpected. He's already a solid on-ball defender, and will probably be a very good defender in due time. His offense is a more complicated issue, specially in a team devoid of good shooters (and, therefore, spacing), and will present a bigger obstacle in his development.
Dante Exum
We all knew Exum was extremely raw, having never played in college or a good pro league, but he actually impressed in his first games in the big leagues. Not because of what he DID, as he still had a very small role in small minutes, but because he had some very advanced understanding of the game for someone that raw. He knew when to hesitate for a second longer waiting for an opening to appear, he would slow down the occasional fast break if he felt the situation wasn't as good while waiting for a trailing teammate... small stuff, but not common for such a young player. He just seemed more mature than he should, and combined with his incredible frame and athletic gifts, it got everyone really excited about him. We couldn't wait for him to develop and start taking a bigger role on Utah.
However, as the season went along, Exum never seemed to improve offensively. He still couldn't shoot, struggled to get better looks or to run the offense (Exum was particularly bad running pick and rolls), and seemed lost as the 19-year old raw prospect that he was. His length and touch allowed him to finish at an excellent rate near the rim (67.2%, very good for a rookie guard), but he struggled to use the space he had to attack the basket and get there effectively, as many of his drives ended with him trying a tough floater or jumper over a defender (to be fair, Utah's paint is usually pretty crowded). And maybe that was to be expected of such a young, raw player, but the lack of improvements as the year went along was the most worrisome part.
But Exum still had a strong showing on the other end of the floor. He will still have that occasional lapse where he will get caught ball-watching, and will be a little slow on his rotations, but Exum was a difference maker on defense. The Australian rookie has a huge frame with long arms, and is not afraid to use them. He will pester you, go after the ball, and contest every pass you try to make. Exum is athletic enough to gamble and recover well, and his long reach allow him to disturb the flow of offenses. After Exum was moved to the starting lineup and Kanter shipped to Oklahoma City, Utah lineups with both Exum and behemoth center Rudy Gobert held opponents to 94.6 points per 100 possessions - a mark that would lead the league in defense by almost 4 full points - and outscored opponents by 7.9 points per 100 possessions (the Clippers had the second best rating in the league this season with 6.9). So there is some promise for Exum, and Utah still sees the kid as the future at the PG position. But his offense will need to improve for the Jazz to take the next step.
Marcus Smart
You could argue that Smart was the victim of a bad situation. Not only because of early injuries that made it tougher for him to adapt, but he went to a team with a lot of ball-dominant guards (first Rondo, then Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Phil Pressey, Evan Turner) - meaning he didn't had many chances to play with the ball and his hands and was forced to adapt to playing more off the ball - and a team that was actually trying to win games in the short term, so he had to adapt to veterans and didn't really have many chances to just go ahead and learn from experience and his own mistakes. He had to take a specific role for his team, and never had the longer leash like most rookies selected in the top part of the lottery. This really limited his offense and his development on that side of the ball as a point guard. Other than his 3 point shot, who still has a lot of room for improvement but was FAR better than everyone expected before the season, nothing about his offense really clicked in 2014/15.
Where Smart really shone was on defense, where he was a beast. He would bother ball handlers dribbling up court, attack the ball relentlessly (quick thought: does it look fun to bring the ball up against a Bradley-Smart combo? I don't think it does), use his physicality to take scorers out of their comfort zone, and was simply impossible to screen even using a brick wall. Ball handlers averaged only 0.64 points per possession in the pick and roll against Smart - the 4th best mark in the league (among players who defended at least 150 possessions) - and it's not a coincidence that Boston was almost 4 points per 100 possessions better with Smart on the floor than on the bench. It's also worth mentioning that he led all rookies in Win Shares, with 2.9. He's already a great defender and should be to be among the league's very bests perimeter defenders in no time. The Celtics probably wanted - and will still want - more from him offensively, but his work on defense was even better than expected.
Julius Randle
Randle broke his leg in his first NBA game, ending his season. So if you're scoring at home, that's the third rookie so far that missed his rookie season (or at least the majority of it) because of an injury, and the fifth (including Gordon and Smart) to miss significant time with one. Just awful.
Nik Stauskas
Stauskas getting drafted this high was a minor shocker, and although you have to cut him some slack because he plays for the Kings, well, he was awful in his rookie season. His biggest strength coming out of Michigan was his jump shot, but the rookie only shot 32.2% from deep, including 33.9% on catch and shoots and 25% on pullups. He was bad on spot up situations - 0.9 points per possession, a below-average mark, specially for someone who was supposed to be a marksman - and also creating out of the pick and roll, 0.72 per possession on 37.5 eFG%. Very bad showing.
Again, you have to remember he plays for the Kings - a dysfunctional franchise that had three different head coaches this season, a front office delusional enough to think they should be aiming for the playoffs in 2014/15, not a lot of talent or a good offensive scheme (for most of the year, anyway). It's a team in turmoil, and sometimes you can't show your talent in such a poisonous environment. But the Kings drafted Stauskas for a reason, and he did very little to show they were right. A lot will have to improve in Year 2.
Noah Vonleh
I'm still trying to understand what the hell happened to Noah Vonleh. My #1 hypothesis is that he was kidnapped by aliens and the Hornets didn't want panic to spread. I mean, yes, he got injured and missed Summer Leagues and most of the preseason, a critical period for rookies to adapt, learn the playbook, and find themselves a role in the team. He was VERY raw coming out of college, and missing this crucial time with the team certainly hurt him. I know this. But still, how in the world did such a talented and promising rookie ended up playing only 25 games and 259 minutes in all for a mediocre franchise that desperately needs talented players (and worst, REALLY need an athletic rebounder and shot blocker like Vonleh) without a major injury (as far as I know, that was not the case)? And it's not like he spent a lot of time developing in the D-League, either - he only played two games for the Mad Ants (not having an affiliated probably hurt the Hornets here). Other than Vonleh hitting on Steve Clifford's wife or something, I can't think of a valid reason.
Jokes aside, the reason probably was that Charlotte wanted to go to the playoffs, and in such a win-now mentality, they didn't want to give such a raw rookie major minutes, specially after early struggles. And I get that. But still, only 25 games?! With Jason Maxiel and Marvin Williams as your other backup options at PF? That's a little too much. I understand that Vonleh is a pick for the future and Charlotte was trying to win now, but you still could give him minutes on that context to help his development - specially considering how mediocre Charlotte was in the first place. So poor Vonleh spend most of his rookie year sitting on the bench, watching the Hornets play. Not a happy experience.
What little I can tell you about Noah Vonleh's on-court production is that he showed, in a very small sample, a strong rebounding. It was considered his major strength coming out of college, and the fact that he grabbed 12 rebounds per 36 minutes (for a slow-paced team, no less - he actually rebounded 18.3% of the available rebounds, more than famed rebounder Nikola Vucevic did) was encouraging. Sure, small sample and with little to no analytic value, but it was nice to see him show something when Clifford took him out of his jail (he also protected the rim well, but again, too small of a sample). I expect him to see an increase in playing time next season after finally going through a full preseason.
Elfrid Payton
Except for Rookie of the Year Award winner Andrew Wiggins, Payton was arguably the best rookie of the 2014/15 class (in other words, not counting Noel or Mirotic) this season. He came into the league as a pass-first, defensive minded point guard, and for the most part, he was exactly that.
Payton's biggest strength is his passing. He moves very well, and always seems to know where his teammates are at all times. He led all rookies in assists with 6.5, and since he returned to the starting lineup in late December against the 76ers, he averaged 7.3 assists against 2.6 turnovers over his last 53 games - to put this in context, the only rookies in the last eight years to average 7 assists a game over a full season were Ricky Rubio (who played only 43 games) and John Wall (6.5 over a full season? Rubio, Wall and Lillard were the only ones to do it). His athleticism, handle and passing makes him a beast in transition, he can read the floor well on the pick and roll/pop, and he's the kind of creative passer who can squeeze the ball into tight spaces for unexpected passes. And that's playing for a bad team with zero spacing or good coaching. His playmaking is special.
His defense, on the other hand, wasn't as good as advertised. He wasn't exactly bad on defense - he was ok - its just that he didn't show anything special, either. The Magic were very bad on that end of the floor whether Payton was on the floor (105.5 per 100 possessions) or not (105.0), so team defense (and the lack of a rim protector) certainly didn't help him. I did not see anything fundamentally broken with his defense, and he does have good lateral agility and a good awareness on that side of the ball, so I think he will be ok, even if he didn't exactly lived up to expectations on that end of the floor so far.
The big elephant in the room for Payton is his shooting. It's awful. Really, really awful. He shot 26% from three point range, 42% from the floor, and 55% (argh!) from the charity stripe. His outside shot is simply broken, and he can't finish anything at the rim, either (49% around the rim). Payton is aware of his limitations, so he usually focus on trying high percentage shots near the rim (50% of his shots came in the restricted area) so his FG% won't drop too low, and he even added a decent floater to his game... but then again, that's very little for a starting PG in the league. Payton is good running the pick and roll and sees the floor well when doing it, but with defense forcing him to take a shot and closing up passing lanes, the results can be horrible. Among 85 players this season that finished (either via a shot, a turnover, or a drawn foul) at least 150 possessions as the ball handler of a pick and roll this season, Payton was the seventh WORST in efficiency, scoring only 0.66 points per possession and coughing up the ball 23% of the time.
It's very hard to be a good PG in the NBA without at least a passable jumper - teams will just go under screens, sag off of you, clog the paint and close your passing lanes - and that's twice as problematic if you can't at least win footraces to the rim and finish there. The moment your PG is not a scoring threat, it gets a lot tougher to manipulate the defense to open the passing lanes you need, and that's even worse when you consider that Orlando has very little shooting to open spaces in the first place.
Payton is very skilled, and should be a good point guard in the NBA for years to come. But this shooting question is lowering considerably his ceiling as a basketball player, and a big obstacle for him to overcome if he wants to take his game - and his team - to the next level.
And the truth is, despite all his injury problems (which certainly contributed), the problem was that Gordon was an extremely raw rookie playing for a bad team filled with players that don't really fit together. Gordon is extremely athletic - the Blake Griffin comparisons came from something - and he can do some damage finishing alley oops or soaring for dunks (he did well finishing in transition, for example) but he struggles when he has to basically create his own shot. 57.3% of his shots came without any dribble, and his shot chart (by NBA.com/stats) helps show the issue:
The sample is small, but most of his offense (49% of his shots) came around the rim - a high number for a small forward - and, more important, he can't really hit anything away from it (near the rim he shot a league-average 61.8% despite all his athleticism). Still, you have to cut him some slack - he played for an awful offensive team, with poor spacing, ball dominant guards and nothing resembling an efficient offensive scheme. Refining that jumper is obviously a priority, and despite some decent ball handling (specially on the open court), Gordon will probably never be a big shot creator. He will keep doing most of his work off the ball - he is very dangerous cutting to the basket - but that could be difficult in an team that struggles so bad to create offense, and against opponents who can sag off of him. To make a really solid analysis on Gordon would demand more playing time and a full season, but we can say the new Magic coach will have his hands full trying to integrate Gordon to his offense.
Defensively, Gordon was very destructive in man defense, doing a very good job against bigger opponents on the post and closing ball handler's paths to the rim. That was expected of him, and he showed a lot of promise in that area. The problem was whenever he need to play away from the ball - he got lost in middle ground when teams put him on pick and rolls, and he often lost his man when navigating through screens. That's the kind of stuff most rookies struggles with, and nothing unexpected. He's already a solid on-ball defender, and will probably be a very good defender in due time. His offense is a more complicated issue, specially in a team devoid of good shooters (and, therefore, spacing), and will present a bigger obstacle in his development.
Dante Exum
We all knew Exum was extremely raw, having never played in college or a good pro league, but he actually impressed in his first games in the big leagues. Not because of what he DID, as he still had a very small role in small minutes, but because he had some very advanced understanding of the game for someone that raw. He knew when to hesitate for a second longer waiting for an opening to appear, he would slow down the occasional fast break if he felt the situation wasn't as good while waiting for a trailing teammate... small stuff, but not common for such a young player. He just seemed more mature than he should, and combined with his incredible frame and athletic gifts, it got everyone really excited about him. We couldn't wait for him to develop and start taking a bigger role on Utah.
However, as the season went along, Exum never seemed to improve offensively. He still couldn't shoot, struggled to get better looks or to run the offense (Exum was particularly bad running pick and rolls), and seemed lost as the 19-year old raw prospect that he was. His length and touch allowed him to finish at an excellent rate near the rim (67.2%, very good for a rookie guard), but he struggled to use the space he had to attack the basket and get there effectively, as many of his drives ended with him trying a tough floater or jumper over a defender (to be fair, Utah's paint is usually pretty crowded). And maybe that was to be expected of such a young, raw player, but the lack of improvements as the year went along was the most worrisome part.
But Exum still had a strong showing on the other end of the floor. He will still have that occasional lapse where he will get caught ball-watching, and will be a little slow on his rotations, but Exum was a difference maker on defense. The Australian rookie has a huge frame with long arms, and is not afraid to use them. He will pester you, go after the ball, and contest every pass you try to make. Exum is athletic enough to gamble and recover well, and his long reach allow him to disturb the flow of offenses. After Exum was moved to the starting lineup and Kanter shipped to Oklahoma City, Utah lineups with both Exum and behemoth center Rudy Gobert held opponents to 94.6 points per 100 possessions - a mark that would lead the league in defense by almost 4 full points - and outscored opponents by 7.9 points per 100 possessions (the Clippers had the second best rating in the league this season with 6.9). So there is some promise for Exum, and Utah still sees the kid as the future at the PG position. But his offense will need to improve for the Jazz to take the next step.
Marcus Smart
You could argue that Smart was the victim of a bad situation. Not only because of early injuries that made it tougher for him to adapt, but he went to a team with a lot of ball-dominant guards (first Rondo, then Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Phil Pressey, Evan Turner) - meaning he didn't had many chances to play with the ball and his hands and was forced to adapt to playing more off the ball - and a team that was actually trying to win games in the short term, so he had to adapt to veterans and didn't really have many chances to just go ahead and learn from experience and his own mistakes. He had to take a specific role for his team, and never had the longer leash like most rookies selected in the top part of the lottery. This really limited his offense and his development on that side of the ball as a point guard. Other than his 3 point shot, who still has a lot of room for improvement but was FAR better than everyone expected before the season, nothing about his offense really clicked in 2014/15.
Where Smart really shone was on defense, where he was a beast. He would bother ball handlers dribbling up court, attack the ball relentlessly (quick thought: does it look fun to bring the ball up against a Bradley-Smart combo? I don't think it does), use his physicality to take scorers out of their comfort zone, and was simply impossible to screen even using a brick wall. Ball handlers averaged only 0.64 points per possession in the pick and roll against Smart - the 4th best mark in the league (among players who defended at least 150 possessions) - and it's not a coincidence that Boston was almost 4 points per 100 possessions better with Smart on the floor than on the bench. It's also worth mentioning that he led all rookies in Win Shares, with 2.9. He's already a great defender and should be to be among the league's very bests perimeter defenders in no time. The Celtics probably wanted - and will still want - more from him offensively, but his work on defense was even better than expected.
Julius Randle
Randle broke his leg in his first NBA game, ending his season. So if you're scoring at home, that's the third rookie so far that missed his rookie season (or at least the majority of it) because of an injury, and the fifth (including Gordon and Smart) to miss significant time with one. Just awful.
Nik Stauskas
Stauskas getting drafted this high was a minor shocker, and although you have to cut him some slack because he plays for the Kings, well, he was awful in his rookie season. His biggest strength coming out of Michigan was his jump shot, but the rookie only shot 32.2% from deep, including 33.9% on catch and shoots and 25% on pullups. He was bad on spot up situations - 0.9 points per possession, a below-average mark, specially for someone who was supposed to be a marksman - and also creating out of the pick and roll, 0.72 per possession on 37.5 eFG%. Very bad showing.
Again, you have to remember he plays for the Kings - a dysfunctional franchise that had three different head coaches this season, a front office delusional enough to think they should be aiming for the playoffs in 2014/15, not a lot of talent or a good offensive scheme (for most of the year, anyway). It's a team in turmoil, and sometimes you can't show your talent in such a poisonous environment. But the Kings drafted Stauskas for a reason, and he did very little to show they were right. A lot will have to improve in Year 2.
Noah Vonleh
I'm still trying to understand what the hell happened to Noah Vonleh. My #1 hypothesis is that he was kidnapped by aliens and the Hornets didn't want panic to spread. I mean, yes, he got injured and missed Summer Leagues and most of the preseason, a critical period for rookies to adapt, learn the playbook, and find themselves a role in the team. He was VERY raw coming out of college, and missing this crucial time with the team certainly hurt him. I know this. But still, how in the world did such a talented and promising rookie ended up playing only 25 games and 259 minutes in all for a mediocre franchise that desperately needs talented players (and worst, REALLY need an athletic rebounder and shot blocker like Vonleh) without a major injury (as far as I know, that was not the case)? And it's not like he spent a lot of time developing in the D-League, either - he only played two games for the Mad Ants (not having an affiliated probably hurt the Hornets here). Other than Vonleh hitting on Steve Clifford's wife or something, I can't think of a valid reason.
Jokes aside, the reason probably was that Charlotte wanted to go to the playoffs, and in such a win-now mentality, they didn't want to give such a raw rookie major minutes, specially after early struggles. And I get that. But still, only 25 games?! With Jason Maxiel and Marvin Williams as your other backup options at PF? That's a little too much. I understand that Vonleh is a pick for the future and Charlotte was trying to win now, but you still could give him minutes on that context to help his development - specially considering how mediocre Charlotte was in the first place. So poor Vonleh spend most of his rookie year sitting on the bench, watching the Hornets play. Not a happy experience.
What little I can tell you about Noah Vonleh's on-court production is that he showed, in a very small sample, a strong rebounding. It was considered his major strength coming out of college, and the fact that he grabbed 12 rebounds per 36 minutes (for a slow-paced team, no less - he actually rebounded 18.3% of the available rebounds, more than famed rebounder Nikola Vucevic did) was encouraging. Sure, small sample and with little to no analytic value, but it was nice to see him show something when Clifford took him out of his jail (he also protected the rim well, but again, too small of a sample). I expect him to see an increase in playing time next season after finally going through a full preseason.
Elfrid Payton
Except for Rookie of the Year Award winner Andrew Wiggins, Payton was arguably the best rookie of the 2014/15 class (in other words, not counting Noel or Mirotic) this season. He came into the league as a pass-first, defensive minded point guard, and for the most part, he was exactly that.
Payton's biggest strength is his passing. He moves very well, and always seems to know where his teammates are at all times. He led all rookies in assists with 6.5, and since he returned to the starting lineup in late December against the 76ers, he averaged 7.3 assists against 2.6 turnovers over his last 53 games - to put this in context, the only rookies in the last eight years to average 7 assists a game over a full season were Ricky Rubio (who played only 43 games) and John Wall (6.5 over a full season? Rubio, Wall and Lillard were the only ones to do it). His athleticism, handle and passing makes him a beast in transition, he can read the floor well on the pick and roll/pop, and he's the kind of creative passer who can squeeze the ball into tight spaces for unexpected passes. And that's playing for a bad team with zero spacing or good coaching. His playmaking is special.
His defense, on the other hand, wasn't as good as advertised. He wasn't exactly bad on defense - he was ok - its just that he didn't show anything special, either. The Magic were very bad on that end of the floor whether Payton was on the floor (105.5 per 100 possessions) or not (105.0), so team defense (and the lack of a rim protector) certainly didn't help him. I did not see anything fundamentally broken with his defense, and he does have good lateral agility and a good awareness on that side of the ball, so I think he will be ok, even if he didn't exactly lived up to expectations on that end of the floor so far.
The big elephant in the room for Payton is his shooting. It's awful. Really, really awful. He shot 26% from three point range, 42% from the floor, and 55% (argh!) from the charity stripe. His outside shot is simply broken, and he can't finish anything at the rim, either (49% around the rim). Payton is aware of his limitations, so he usually focus on trying high percentage shots near the rim (50% of his shots came in the restricted area) so his FG% won't drop too low, and he even added a decent floater to his game... but then again, that's very little for a starting PG in the league. Payton is good running the pick and roll and sees the floor well when doing it, but with defense forcing him to take a shot and closing up passing lanes, the results can be horrible. Among 85 players this season that finished (either via a shot, a turnover, or a drawn foul) at least 150 possessions as the ball handler of a pick and roll this season, Payton was the seventh WORST in efficiency, scoring only 0.66 points per possession and coughing up the ball 23% of the time.
It's very hard to be a good PG in the NBA without at least a passable jumper - teams will just go under screens, sag off of you, clog the paint and close your passing lanes - and that's twice as problematic if you can't at least win footraces to the rim and finish there. The moment your PG is not a scoring threat, it gets a lot tougher to manipulate the defense to open the passing lanes you need, and that's even worse when you consider that Orlando has very little shooting to open spaces in the first place.
Payton is very skilled, and should be a good point guard in the NBA for years to come. But this shooting question is lowering considerably his ceiling as a basketball player, and a big obstacle for him to overcome if he wants to take his game - and his team - to the next level.
Doug McDermott
As a low-ceiling veteran, McDermott was drafted #11 overall because he was a ridiculous sharpshooter in College. He was expected to come in and contribute right away, specially on the deep balls, but everyone knew his game was somewhat limited.
And the big problem for McDermott was, he actually didn't hit his shots from deep (14 of 41), and the rest of his game didn't do much to earn him playing time in Chicago - he only played 9 minutes a game, for 36 games. If he's not spacing the floor and killing it from deep, then McDermott is not really a very useful NBA player.
Of course, he also played for Tom Thibodeau in Chicago, a guy who's not exactly known for using rookies very well. That's the same guy who burried Nikola Mirotic in the playoffs despite all evidence pointing to Chicago playing better with him on the floor (more on that later), and actually played Kirk Hinrich over Tony Snell (a sophomore, but you get the point) in his postseason rotation. I still think there is a spot for him on this team and this league, and guys in the Top10 in scoring in NCAA history don't simply forget how to shoot overnight. Maybe a new coach and a new offensive scheme can get him going next season.
Dario Saric
As everyone already knew before the Draft - yes, specially Sam Hinkie - Saric is not coming to the NBA until 2016 at the earliest. So there is really not much to talk about here. Instead, I'll just leave you with this awesome Dario Saric mix to get you excited for 2016:
Zach LaVine
This might be my favorite "HOLY HELL!" stat from the 2014/15 Draft class, but did you know that, over the last 18 games of the season, Zach LaVine averaged 19 points, 5 assists, 5 rebounds and shot 39% from 3PT range?! It was a minor shocked when I found out.
Now, I know what you're thinking. That's an arbitrary starting point and a small sample; his numbers are inflated because he played for a bad team, had the ball in his hands a lot and had a very long leash because of the low expectations; that's a point in the season were many teams are slowing down, resting starters, and playing end-of-roster players (so the competition is easier); he also averaged 4 turnovers.
And those are fair points. Actually, they are all true. I'm not arguing that LaVine is that good, or that he is the new James Harden or something. It's just that, for a player that came to the NBA so incredibly raw and with half-serious scouting reports like "he has a lot of talent, just needs to learn how to play basketball", it was really fun to see LaVine playing with such confidence and putting up nice numbers. When he came to the the NBA, people thought he was basically an incredibly athletic dunker. And really, he IS an incredibly athletic dunker. I mean, look at this...
And this...
Oh God, there's this one, too...
... what was I talking about again?
Oh yeah, LaVine. Despite his athleticism and unbelievable dunks, he played very little at UCLA, never showed a clearly defined skill set, and most of the time did not seem to know what he was doing on court. Many people thought, despite his enormous potential, it would take a couple years before he was ready to play in in an NBA game. And trust me, he DID show all that inexperience and rawness in the NBA. He would frequently miss rotations or move out of his spot on offense, struggled reading the floor and making good decisions, and had abysmal shot selection. LaVine coughed up the ball at an alarming rate (20% of his possessions), and sometimes seemed lost on court. But again, that was already expected of him, specially by the Timberwolves. The team let him play through all those problems and growing pains, and it helped him grow. And, looking back, he certainly looked better in his first taste of the big leagues than most people expected one year ago.
And LaVine also showed a lot of good things. His 34% percentage from deep looks bad, but that's mostly the product of poor shot selection - he was very effective in spot up situations, and shot 40% from deep in catch and shoot situations, and even improved as a pull up shooter as the season went along, averaging 39% from deep after the All Star Game. His speed moving around court gave him some good looks near the rim, and we all know how athletic he is. The main problem was whenever he had the ball in his hands to create something, as he committed way to many turnovers. LaVine had a 65.4 eFG% finishing possessions without taking any dribble (including alley oops, spot up shots, etc), and around 41 eFG% when finishing after at least one. Of course, he had a long leash to do things his way and learn with his mistakes, but still a big gap.
There will be a lot of growing pains, and I'm not sure I see LaVine as a point guard, as some in the Wolves organization claim he is. To me, he's more of a combo guard off the bench, someone to change the pace, run in transition and space the floor - maybe even carrying some of your offense when your starters rest. He still has a long way to go before scratching his enormous ceiling. But honestly, despite the fact that in his first year in the league LaVine wasn't probably exactly good at basketball, he was a lot better than most expected him to be, and he showed a lot of good things for a team that, frankly, was quite happy in letting him miss and learn by experience (one of the reasons why his efficiency numbers are so bad at first sight). I'm a believer, and I think LaVine will be really good in a couple of years.
TJ Warren
It's tough to know what to make of TJ Warren, considering how little he played in 2014/15. He spent some time in the D-League, where he dominated with the Bakersfield Jam in the 9 games he played there (27-7, 54.4 FG%), but most of the year he spent on the Suns' bench, with a hard time getting playing time in a decent team trying to make the playoffs. He played mostly on garbage time and blowouts throughout the year, finally earning more minutes in the last weeks of the seasons after Phoenix's lottery fate was already sealed, and finished those 21 games averaging an unspectacular 8 points and 3 rebounds in 20 minutes. Not a lot of material here.
The problem with Warren is that he is a wing scorer that can't shoot from deep nor is blessed with great athleticism. He survives mostly with an in-between game based on hesitations, misdirection, post ups, cuts, floaters and mid-range shots - not exactly the repertoire of a NBA star, and the kind of game the NBA seems to be marginalizing in the last couple years. Even with a great basketball IQ and phenomenal performances in both the D-League and the NCAA (and, some sources say, in pre-draft workouts as well) that makes him one of those "does it when it count" players, you have to be reeeeeally good in that unsexy skill set to be a solid player in the NBA. And maybe that's what Warren is. In a VERY small sample and volume, he was pretty efficient in those limited NBA minutes, shooting 68% in the restricted area (and 50% in the non-restricted area of the paint), scoring efficiently in the pick and roll (as the ball handler), in transition, and cutting to the basket (where he actually averaged 1.44 per possession, 88th percentile of NBA players). The sample is too small to mean anything, but that's what was expected of him, and that's the kind of efficiency he will have to show going forward if he's to live up to expectations. But, so far, the jury is still out on Warren.
Jusuf Nurkic
Nurkic is the closest we'll ever come to answering the question "What would be like if a grizzly bear played center in the NBA?". He's that big, strong, tough, menacing kind of a player.
Nurkic was an unknown commodity coming to the NBA, a raw talent who posted HUGE per minute numbers in Europe, but coming off the bench and in limited minutes for a smaller team. He still struggles with NBA-level reads at times, specially on offense, and looked a little (or a lot) out of control at times. That, his rawness, and the fact that the Nuggets was a sad, dysfunctional team in 2014/15 helps explain his lack of playing time (only 17 minutes a game). But nothing you wouldn't expect from rookies, specially one without a lot of high-level experience in Europe.
And Nurkic showed a LOT of good things to make Nuggets fans really excited. His offensive game was still raw, and his numbers weren't good, but a big part of that was excessive energy. He would often try to finish a possession very quickly, take a shot as soon as he touched the ball, and rush things a lot more than he should. He often got good looks but tried to do too much too fast, instead of gathering himself and reading the defense before reacting. Again, he tends to play a little out of control at times. But he also had possessions where he was fantastic, cutting hard to the rim after setting a pick, establishing good position down low, and using his huge frame and brute strength to score inside. He's still raw on that end, but he has the tools to be very good.
But where Nurkic really impressed was on the defensive end of the ball. He uses his frame very well to clog up spaces and deny opponents an easy path to the basket, and he did very well defending the rim, holding opponents to a solid 48.5% near the basket (Anthony Davis held opponents to 48.6%, for example). He was also a beast defending the post, as most opponents had a really tough time moving this behemoth down low: he allowed only 0.72 points per possession defending post ups, the 7th best mark in the league for players with at least 100 such possessions. Sure, Nurkic is still learning NBA-level rotations and will have his fair share of mistakes (specially defending the pick and roll), and there were possessions were he was too aggressive and allowed an easy bucket, but for the most part he was very good on that side of the ball, and it's not a coincidence that the Nuggets had an above-average defense with him on the floor and one of the NBA's worst defenses with him on the bench. He was also a very dominant rebounder (12.5 per 36 minutes), grabbing 18.7% of available rebounds while on the floor -the 8th best mark in the NBA among players with at least 1000 minutes.
I know this sounds nuts, but he kind of reminds me a little of Marc Gasol. You know, very big, solid, scary-looking center who is built like a brick wall who also moves incredibly quick? Of course, Gasol is one of NBA's most cerebral players, while the word to describe Nurkic is probably "crazy". But it's mostly good crazy. I love what I saw from him in his first season, and think he has what it takes to be one of the best two-way center in the NBA for years to come. A better coaching situation would help, too.
Rodney Hood
Hood wasn't exactly a dominant rookie, averaging 9-2-2 in 21 minutes a game (50 games) with 41 FG% and 36 3PT%. But what makes him interesting is what made Utah's 2014/15 season interesting: the second half of the season surge. After trading Enes Kanter, Utah went 19-10 the rest of the season, with the league's best defense (by a mile) and it's fourth best Net Rating. It was a phenomenal stretch of basketball that shows us a glimpse of this team's bright future.
And Hood was a big part of that surge. He played sporadically in the start of the season, and didn't rejoin the team until the first game after the All-Star Weekend... and from that point to the end of the season, he averaged 12 points, 2 assists, 2 rebounds and shot 42% from deep for that dominant Utah team. Eventually, Hood found his way into the starting lineup for the last 20 games of the season (he missed three of them), and in those games he averaged 14 points a game and shot 40% from deep. With him on the floor during that stretch, Utah scored 104.6 points per 100 possessions and outscored opponents by 8.8 per 100 possessions, while scoring 100.9/100 and outscoring opponents by 2.2/100 with him on the bench. His shot chart post ASG was a thing of beauty:
The starting lineup that finished the season and got the most minutes after the Kanter trade - Exum, Hood, Hayward, Favors and Gobert, a lineup that includes two rookies and a sophomore - outscored opponents by 11.8, and it's not hard to see why Hood was a big part of it. This is a lineup with two bigs who like to play in the paint, and a PG who can't shoot. Spacing is really tight, and they need to open up the lane by any means possible. And if you add a swingman shooting 40% from deep to this mix, then suddenly you have something to make this team work offensively without taking anything from it's ungodly defense (Hood is not a great defender, but he's good enough, can hold his own against SGs and SFs, has long arms to disrupt offense, and works well within the team defensive scheme). And he's actually done very well attacking close ups, finding good looks and taking what the defense gives him. He was a much-needed injection of shooting and offensive creativity to a building defensive juggernaut, and an important piece to the puzzle.
Maybe Hood will never be more than a role player, as people said during the Draft. But a role player capable of shooting 40% from deep (even if he's not THAT good, 38% or so would already be very good), hold his own defensively, attack closeout or mismatches when needed, and even act as a secondary ball handler (Hood was incredibly good running the pick and roll in a smaller sample, averaging 0.94 points per possession in over 100 pick and rolls last season) at times... is a pretty darn good role player. And he has the potential to be even better with this suddenly very promising Jazz team.
Jordan Clarkson
My Jordan Clarkson story: a couple weeks before the Draft, my friend Ricardo Stabolito asked me to rank the best 10 PGs in the Draft class for a column. He needed a quick answer to meet his deadline, so I made my Top10 point guard list even though I had not finished studying all of them as much as I'd like. The next day the column was published and, unsatisfied with the result, I decided to focus on the PGs I hadn't studied as much yet. One of them was Clarkson. Two days later, I texted him "How did you let me put Clarkson that low?! I thought you were my friend!". I had become a Clarkson believer. I had him as a 1st round pick, named him one of my sleepers in the Draft (the other ones: KJ McDaniels, Spencer Dinwiddie and Nick Johnson), and distinctively remember being pissed he fell all the way to #46.
So I was very happy to see him break out in the second half of the 2014/15 season, after the Lakers finally made him a starter (last 39 games of the season): 16 points, 5 assists and 4 rebounds a game while shooting 45.6%. Despite not having one great skill like Smart's defense or Payton's passing, Clarkson has a nice well-rounded game and can do a little bit of everything on a basketball court. He is a capable defender when involved, and can do a lot of different things on offense, from creating shot for his teammates to creating for himself and scoring in a variety of ways.
Clarkson can be very aggressive with the ball on his hands, attacking the rim to create good shots. He can get to the basket, and finish there at a decent clip. He still finishes too many of his possessions on that in-between area, with mid-range jumpers or floaters, but he nails them at a decent rate, and he takes good care of the ball doing it, turning it over only 12.9% of the time on his pick and rolls. His jump shooting numbers weren't very good - specially from deep - but part of it is trying too many tough, off-the-bounce shots that the Lakers were happy to let him take. Clarkson hit his mid-range shots at a good rate, and his 0.83 points per possessions off the pick and roll put him in the 74th percentile of all NBA players.
Although Clarkson can create to teammates and is a willing passer, he is still an attack-first PG. He is smart about using openings and passing lanes his drives create to find open teammates, but that's not his priority. He is not the kind of guard who sees the floor in advance and manipulate defenses into opening certain spaces or shots, and probably never will be - the Lakers offense would get stagnant (more than usual, I mean) at times with him running the point, as he would take too long trying to create a shot before moving it to a teammate. But, again, the Lakers gave him a long leash later in the season so he could try what he wanted and learn from the experience, so you have to take that into account.
I remember comparing him to Reggie Jackson before the Draft - not the skill set as much as that flexibility he can bring to a team off the bench, carrying the offense for some stretches in bench-heavy units, attacking the basket and involving his teammates a little, but also assuming a complimentary role when needed. It's still unclear if Clarkson will be a longtime starting PG in the NBA - I still see him more as a versatile, change-of-pace scoring guard off the bench - but it was still a very good rookie season for a player that was inexplicably picked in the second half of the second round of the Draft.
Nerlens Noel
Yes, yes, I know - this was supposed to be a column about the 2014/15 Draft Class. And it was... for the most part. But I'm on a row here, and wanted to waste a few words on two rookies from other draft classes that shone in the 2015 season. My blog, my rules. So let's start with Noel, the 2013 Draft #1 prospect before a knee injury ended his freshman season prematurely and put in doubt his status for the whole 2013/14 season, the main reason he fell to the Pelicans at #6 (who traded that pick plus their 2014 1st rounder - eventually Elfrid Payton, who was traded again for Dario Saric and a future 1st - for Jrue Holiday). And because Noel DID miss the 2013/14 season, he debuted one year later as a 2015 rookie.
The first thing we knew about Noel when he was drafted was that he was a good defender. And, truth be told, in his rookie season he wasn't a good defender - he was a great one. He used his length, athleticism and quickness to dominate the area around the rim on defense, blocking shots and altering many others. Noel lead all rookies with 1.9 blocks per game, and opponents shot 45% around the rim against him - the 7th best mark in the entire league. He also used this quickness and length to disrupt passing lanes and deny entry passes with ease, averaging 1.8 steals per game as well, becoming only the 8th player in NBA history to average 1.9 blocks and 1.8 steals per game, and the first player younger than 22 to do it (Noel is 20). I know steals and blocks numbers are not the same as good defense, but it gives you an example of how disruptive he can be on that end of the floor. He was a beast near the rim all year, and was a big reason why the bad Sixers had a Top10 defense for most of the season. Eventually (and specially after long-armed point guard Michael Carter-Williams left town) teams started to draw Noel away from the rim by involving him on more pick and rolls, and he struggled to defend closer to the perimeter, where he was frequently out of position and a little too slow to recognize where to go and what to do, while also robing him of his biggest strength (rim protection). But this kind of struggle is normal for NBA rookie bigs, takes time to understand the motions of a NBA-level offense, and Noel was such a monster in the paint that there is no reason to worry about him on that side of the ball.
The other thing we knew about Noel is that he had a very hard time scoring the basketball. And that was also very much true in his rookie season. The Sixers big has no offensive game outside the restricted area, as he was the third worst mid-range shooter in the entire league (among players with 100+ attempts) with a 30.8 shooting percentage, and also the WORST post-up player in the league (min. 120 possessions), with 0.64 points per possession and 32 FG% on such shots. He survived mostly on dunks and putbacks, but had nothing good to do once the ball was in his hands (he had a 51 FG% on shots he took zero dribbles before, and had a sub 40% average on shots with at least one). Players with that kind of athleticism and limited offensive repertoire usually do their damage cutting hard on pick and rolls, sucking defenders in and soaring above the rim for lob passes, but he was also among the league's worst pick and roll finishers.
It's true that Noel didn't play with a good point guard to help him with those shots, and the Sixers were an atrocious offensive team with bad spacing and passing, so the jury is still out on whether Noel can survive on offense on a Tyson Chandler-esque pick-and-roll/cutter role, but the first signs weren't exactly encouraging on that side of the ball. For now, Noel might be the most extreme player in the NBA, a dominant beast protecting the paint on defense, and one of NBA's most helpless players (at least among higher-usage ones) on offense. He was also one of the best rookies of the 2014/15 season and a no-brainer for 1st Team All Rookie. So there is that.
Nikola Mirotic
Mirotic doesn't have impressive individual numbers other than a very good March (more on this later), as he averaged 10 points and 5 rebounds a game while shooting 40% from the field and 31% from deep while struggling to find consistent minutes for the Bulls. But here is the truly impressive stat of Mirotic's rookie season (with offensive rating being points scored per 100 possessions):
It was surreal how much better Mirotic made Chicago whenever he stepped on court. The 24-year old rookie is a power forward with three point range, what is already a valuable NBA commodity on itself. Even though Mirotic wasn't hitting those outside shots at a good rate(31% from deep only), it was enough to make defenses think twice about helping off of him, and so providing valuable floor-spacing for Chicago's offense. But Mirotic is not just a jump-shooting big - he is also a crafty ball handler and a great passer for a big men, two things that add a new dimension to Chicago's offense whenever he stepped on court. His shooting would keep an opposing big near him and open the paint for Rose's or Butler's drives or Gasol's post ups, and he has a solid low post game to punish mismatches or smaller opponents, but he is also very good attacking gaps and driving on closeouts - his passing, court vision and creativity makes him a dangerous threat off the bounce, and also allows Chicago's offense to keep flowing after an initial action (the Bulls biggest problem on offense at times). This new dimension can't be provided by any other Chicago big, and was the biggest reason why the Bulls were a much better team with him on the floor. Mirotic is also a good defender in space (despite the fact that he can't protect the rim), with surprising quick feet when defending bigs away form the paint and even sliding on smaller players on some pick and roll actions. This versatility is what makes him so valuable: no matter the other big he was paired with, Chicago excelled - lineups with Gasol and Mirotic had a +4.4 Net Rating, and both lineups with Mirotic and Gibson or Mirotic and Noah had a +4.8 Net Rating.
The big problems here were the surplus of big men in Chicago, and Tom Thibodeau, who is not really a fan of playing rookies and struggled to find minutes for Mirotic in his rookie season. With Noah (the team's leader and best defender when healthy), Gibson (quality two-way backup) and Gasol (high-paid free agent acquisition) already demanding big minutes, Mirotic was only the fourth option on the paint for Chicago this season, despite being it's most valuable big. Thibodeau would sometimes play Mirotic at SF to keep him on court, but it wasn't the best solution as it negated Mirotic's biggest strengths (the passing and spacing he brings to the power forward spot), and exposed him on defense against more athletic players. The situation got really bizarre in the playoffs, as the Bulls offense was stagnating with awful spacing, and Thibs still refused to give Mirotic the minutes he deserved. Still, his March - when multiple Chicago bigs missed time with injuries and Thibodeau was forced to play Mirotic 30 minutes a game - remains a testament to how good he could be in the right situation: 21-7 with a +6.7 Net Rating on court (24-9-2 with 1.4 blocks per 36 minutes).
Mirotic is not perfect, of course: his efficiency wasn't very good throughout the season, his 3pt percentages need to improve if he is going to keep demanding so much attention from defenses, and his rim protection was awful (Chicago would smartly keep him defending closer to the perimeter). But he still led all rookies in PER (17.9), and looks to be the perfect complimentary piece for the modern NBA, a mobile big who can stretch the floor, defend in space, keep the offense flowing, throw smart passes, and basically fill many different functions on offense. Maybe a new coach is what Mirotic needs to really break out in 2015/16.
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All things considered, I don't think there is any reason to worry about this rookie class. Wiggins is a superstar in the making, and most of the time, the problem with the 2015 rookie class (or at least it's top talents) was either injuries or extreme youth. Of the nine highest drafted players (and eight highest rated prospects), three were lost for the season with season-long injuries (Embiid, Parker and Randle), and three other were high potential youngsters who struggled to get minutes and touches because of the rawness of their games, minor injuries, or both (Exum, Gordon and Vonleh). That's six of the best eight players in the class! And the late lottery/mid-first round also game us some good talents, like Payton, Nurkic and LaVine. The late first round is lacking so far, but Clint Capela is playing very well in the playoffs for the Rockets and Hood was great for Utah, so it's not like there is nothing to show.
So mostly, it was the combination of two factors: some of the draft's biggest talents had a lost season because of injuries; and the fact that, with players coming to the NBA younger than even, it's getting tougher and tougher to evaluate those players in their first year, when they still aren't developed enough to earn major minutes or a major role for good teams. In a couple years, they will have a more defined future in the league... and sometimes even THEN we don't have a clue of what's to come (see: Hassan Whiteside). So for now, let's put aside the talk about this "disappointing" rookie class and focus on what we have right now - and, as you've seen above, there is a lot to be excited about.
So I was very happy to see him break out in the second half of the 2014/15 season, after the Lakers finally made him a starter (last 39 games of the season): 16 points, 5 assists and 4 rebounds a game while shooting 45.6%. Despite not having one great skill like Smart's defense or Payton's passing, Clarkson has a nice well-rounded game and can do a little bit of everything on a basketball court. He is a capable defender when involved, and can do a lot of different things on offense, from creating shot for his teammates to creating for himself and scoring in a variety of ways.
Clarkson can be very aggressive with the ball on his hands, attacking the rim to create good shots. He can get to the basket, and finish there at a decent clip. He still finishes too many of his possessions on that in-between area, with mid-range jumpers or floaters, but he nails them at a decent rate, and he takes good care of the ball doing it, turning it over only 12.9% of the time on his pick and rolls. His jump shooting numbers weren't very good - specially from deep - but part of it is trying too many tough, off-the-bounce shots that the Lakers were happy to let him take. Clarkson hit his mid-range shots at a good rate, and his 0.83 points per possessions off the pick and roll put him in the 74th percentile of all NBA players.
Although Clarkson can create to teammates and is a willing passer, he is still an attack-first PG. He is smart about using openings and passing lanes his drives create to find open teammates, but that's not his priority. He is not the kind of guard who sees the floor in advance and manipulate defenses into opening certain spaces or shots, and probably never will be - the Lakers offense would get stagnant (more than usual, I mean) at times with him running the point, as he would take too long trying to create a shot before moving it to a teammate. But, again, the Lakers gave him a long leash later in the season so he could try what he wanted and learn from the experience, so you have to take that into account.
I remember comparing him to Reggie Jackson before the Draft - not the skill set as much as that flexibility he can bring to a team off the bench, carrying the offense for some stretches in bench-heavy units, attacking the basket and involving his teammates a little, but also assuming a complimentary role when needed. It's still unclear if Clarkson will be a longtime starting PG in the NBA - I still see him more as a versatile, change-of-pace scoring guard off the bench - but it was still a very good rookie season for a player that was inexplicably picked in the second half of the second round of the Draft.
Nerlens Noel
Yes, yes, I know - this was supposed to be a column about the 2014/15 Draft Class. And it was... for the most part. But I'm on a row here, and wanted to waste a few words on two rookies from other draft classes that shone in the 2015 season. My blog, my rules. So let's start with Noel, the 2013 Draft #1 prospect before a knee injury ended his freshman season prematurely and put in doubt his status for the whole 2013/14 season, the main reason he fell to the Pelicans at #6 (who traded that pick plus their 2014 1st rounder - eventually Elfrid Payton, who was traded again for Dario Saric and a future 1st - for Jrue Holiday). And because Noel DID miss the 2013/14 season, he debuted one year later as a 2015 rookie.
The first thing we knew about Noel when he was drafted was that he was a good defender. And, truth be told, in his rookie season he wasn't a good defender - he was a great one. He used his length, athleticism and quickness to dominate the area around the rim on defense, blocking shots and altering many others. Noel lead all rookies with 1.9 blocks per game, and opponents shot 45% around the rim against him - the 7th best mark in the entire league. He also used this quickness and length to disrupt passing lanes and deny entry passes with ease, averaging 1.8 steals per game as well, becoming only the 8th player in NBA history to average 1.9 blocks and 1.8 steals per game, and the first player younger than 22 to do it (Noel is 20). I know steals and blocks numbers are not the same as good defense, but it gives you an example of how disruptive he can be on that end of the floor. He was a beast near the rim all year, and was a big reason why the bad Sixers had a Top10 defense for most of the season. Eventually (and specially after long-armed point guard Michael Carter-Williams left town) teams started to draw Noel away from the rim by involving him on more pick and rolls, and he struggled to defend closer to the perimeter, where he was frequently out of position and a little too slow to recognize where to go and what to do, while also robing him of his biggest strength (rim protection). But this kind of struggle is normal for NBA rookie bigs, takes time to understand the motions of a NBA-level offense, and Noel was such a monster in the paint that there is no reason to worry about him on that side of the ball.
The other thing we knew about Noel is that he had a very hard time scoring the basketball. And that was also very much true in his rookie season. The Sixers big has no offensive game outside the restricted area, as he was the third worst mid-range shooter in the entire league (among players with 100+ attempts) with a 30.8 shooting percentage, and also the WORST post-up player in the league (min. 120 possessions), with 0.64 points per possession and 32 FG% on such shots. He survived mostly on dunks and putbacks, but had nothing good to do once the ball was in his hands (he had a 51 FG% on shots he took zero dribbles before, and had a sub 40% average on shots with at least one). Players with that kind of athleticism and limited offensive repertoire usually do their damage cutting hard on pick and rolls, sucking defenders in and soaring above the rim for lob passes, but he was also among the league's worst pick and roll finishers.
It's true that Noel didn't play with a good point guard to help him with those shots, and the Sixers were an atrocious offensive team with bad spacing and passing, so the jury is still out on whether Noel can survive on offense on a Tyson Chandler-esque pick-and-roll/cutter role, but the first signs weren't exactly encouraging on that side of the ball. For now, Noel might be the most extreme player in the NBA, a dominant beast protecting the paint on defense, and one of NBA's most helpless players (at least among higher-usage ones) on offense. He was also one of the best rookies of the 2014/15 season and a no-brainer for 1st Team All Rookie. So there is that.
Nikola Mirotic
Mirotic doesn't have impressive individual numbers other than a very good March (more on this later), as he averaged 10 points and 5 rebounds a game while shooting 40% from the field and 31% from deep while struggling to find consistent minutes for the Bulls. But here is the truly impressive stat of Mirotic's rookie season (with offensive rating being points scored per 100 possessions):
It was surreal how much better Mirotic made Chicago whenever he stepped on court. The 24-year old rookie is a power forward with three point range, what is already a valuable NBA commodity on itself. Even though Mirotic wasn't hitting those outside shots at a good rate(31% from deep only), it was enough to make defenses think twice about helping off of him, and so providing valuable floor-spacing for Chicago's offense. But Mirotic is not just a jump-shooting big - he is also a crafty ball handler and a great passer for a big men, two things that add a new dimension to Chicago's offense whenever he stepped on court. His shooting would keep an opposing big near him and open the paint for Rose's or Butler's drives or Gasol's post ups, and he has a solid low post game to punish mismatches or smaller opponents, but he is also very good attacking gaps and driving on closeouts - his passing, court vision and creativity makes him a dangerous threat off the bounce, and also allows Chicago's offense to keep flowing after an initial action (the Bulls biggest problem on offense at times). This new dimension can't be provided by any other Chicago big, and was the biggest reason why the Bulls were a much better team with him on the floor. Mirotic is also a good defender in space (despite the fact that he can't protect the rim), with surprising quick feet when defending bigs away form the paint and even sliding on smaller players on some pick and roll actions. This versatility is what makes him so valuable: no matter the other big he was paired with, Chicago excelled - lineups with Gasol and Mirotic had a +4.4 Net Rating, and both lineups with Mirotic and Gibson or Mirotic and Noah had a +4.8 Net Rating.
The big problems here were the surplus of big men in Chicago, and Tom Thibodeau, who is not really a fan of playing rookies and struggled to find minutes for Mirotic in his rookie season. With Noah (the team's leader and best defender when healthy), Gibson (quality two-way backup) and Gasol (high-paid free agent acquisition) already demanding big minutes, Mirotic was only the fourth option on the paint for Chicago this season, despite being it's most valuable big. Thibodeau would sometimes play Mirotic at SF to keep him on court, but it wasn't the best solution as it negated Mirotic's biggest strengths (the passing and spacing he brings to the power forward spot), and exposed him on defense against more athletic players. The situation got really bizarre in the playoffs, as the Bulls offense was stagnating with awful spacing, and Thibs still refused to give Mirotic the minutes he deserved. Still, his March - when multiple Chicago bigs missed time with injuries and Thibodeau was forced to play Mirotic 30 minutes a game - remains a testament to how good he could be in the right situation: 21-7 with a +6.7 Net Rating on court (24-9-2 with 1.4 blocks per 36 minutes).
Mirotic is not perfect, of course: his efficiency wasn't very good throughout the season, his 3pt percentages need to improve if he is going to keep demanding so much attention from defenses, and his rim protection was awful (Chicago would smartly keep him defending closer to the perimeter). But he still led all rookies in PER (17.9), and looks to be the perfect complimentary piece for the modern NBA, a mobile big who can stretch the floor, defend in space, keep the offense flowing, throw smart passes, and basically fill many different functions on offense. Maybe a new coach is what Mirotic needs to really break out in 2015/16.
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All things considered, I don't think there is any reason to worry about this rookie class. Wiggins is a superstar in the making, and most of the time, the problem with the 2015 rookie class (or at least it's top talents) was either injuries or extreme youth. Of the nine highest drafted players (and eight highest rated prospects), three were lost for the season with season-long injuries (Embiid, Parker and Randle), and three other were high potential youngsters who struggled to get minutes and touches because of the rawness of their games, minor injuries, or both (Exum, Gordon and Vonleh). That's six of the best eight players in the class! And the late lottery/mid-first round also game us some good talents, like Payton, Nurkic and LaVine. The late first round is lacking so far, but Clint Capela is playing very well in the playoffs for the Rockets and Hood was great for Utah, so it's not like there is nothing to show.
So mostly, it was the combination of two factors: some of the draft's biggest talents had a lost season because of injuries; and the fact that, with players coming to the NBA younger than even, it's getting tougher and tougher to evaluate those players in their first year, when they still aren't developed enough to earn major minutes or a major role for good teams. In a couple years, they will have a more defined future in the league... and sometimes even THEN we don't have a clue of what's to come (see: Hassan Whiteside). So for now, let's put aside the talk about this "disappointing" rookie class and focus on what we have right now - and, as you've seen above, there is a lot to be excited about.
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